GoonersGuide 30 Dec - Heroes and Villains
Midweek Special
| Tuesday 30 December
This is one of those odd in-between slates. Not quite Boxing Day madness, not quite a full weekend card either. A handful of Premier League games, some solid lower-league action, a bit of Scotland, and a couple of college football bowls to keep things ticking over while the calendar flips.
As always, this is a value-based newsletter, not a promise of perfection. Some bets will win, some will not. A 52 percent edge is still a coin flip on the night, even if it makes money over time. If you are looking for certainties, this is the wrong place. If you are looking for prices that are wrong more often than they should be, welcome back.
Let’s get into the numbers.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bets
Burnley vs Newcastle United
Premier League | Tuesday 30 December
Burnley sit 19th and are being priced like they are already gone. Newcastle are travelling poorly but still attract support simply because they are Newcastle.
At Turf Moor, Burnley are 2-2-5. Not good, but Newcastle away are 1-3-5 which is actually worse. These sides met four weeks ago at St James’ Park where Newcastle won 2-1, with a late Burnley penalty making the score line look closer than the game really was.
On raw ratings, I still have Newcastle around half a goal better even away from home. But when you isolate relegation-threatened sides in this range, the results flatten out fast. Across 108 similar matches, the breakdown comes back home win 36 percent, draw 34 percent, away win 30 percent.
Burnley beat Leeds here in October, then lost four straight before a draw with Everton. Newcastle are rated below all five of those opponents. Yet they are being priced around 1.60 while Burnley drifted past 5.00.
The market is screaming Newcastle. My numbers are not. Rather than fight the full result, I am siding with Burnley plus half a goal. Win or draw gets paid, and prices north of 2.35 still feel generous. Leave it late and you may do even better.
Bet idea
Burnley +0.5 goals at 2.35 or better
Nottingham Forest vs Everton
Premier League | Tuesday 30 December
Forest are 17th, have lost 10 of 18 this season, and own a home record of 3-1-5 which tells you they lose just as easily at the City Ground as anywhere else. Everton beat them 3-0 at Goodison a month ago, and yet Forest are being priced as clear favourites here.
That does not sit well with me.
My ratings have Everton ahead 1020 to 1005. Across 163 comparable fixtures, that translates to a results split of home 33 percent, draw 23 percent, away 44 percent. Everton’s away record of 3-2-4 is respectable, with losses only at City and Chelsea and wins at Bournemouth and Manchester United.
Neither side scores much. Both sit on 18 goals for the season, joint second lowest in the league, and Forest are badly missing Chris Wood.
I can see this ending 1-0 either way, but at 3.60 to 3.75 on Everton, I would rather back the away side than take a skinny home price that makes little sense.
Bet
Everton to win at 3.60 or better
Arsenal vs Aston Villa
Premier League | Tuesday 30 December
Arsenal are top of the table and grinding out wins despite a long injury list. The squad depth is holding, but the goals are not flowing freely. Owen Goal remains one of the leading contributors, if you know you know.
Villa arrive having won 11 straight, many by a single goal, but confidence is a powerful thing and Unai Emery’s side have it in abundance. They beat Arsenal 2-1 at Villa Park just 24 days ago with the last kick of the game, a match where the value lay on the home win and the draw and we came out ahead.
The numbers are similar again. Arsenal rate higher at 1138 to 1040, roughly a one-goal edge. But the price on Arsenal is short and the price on Villa is large.
I have already taken Villa outright at 7.50. It is a value bet, not a prediction. It also doubles as emotional insurance. If it loses, I am happy. If it wins, it pays for beers and a very good meal to soften the blow.
Bet
Aston Villa to win at 7.00 plus
Manchester United vs Wolves
Premier League | Tuesday 30 December
The 1.33 on United looks absurd given the injury list, even accounting for Wolves’ dreadful record. Wolves sit at 0-2-16 and are bottom for goals scored and bottom for goals conceded.
That said, the spreadsheet hates this price. Wolves at 8.00 to 9.00 shows enormous theoretical value, driven by United’s fragility and Wolves’ recent competitiveness away at Villa, Arsenal and Liverpool where they lost by a single goal each time.
And yet, context matters. Wolves have lost 12 straight in all competitions and score at a rate that makes comebacks unlikely. This is one of those spots where the model shouts and the gut quietly shakes its head.
No bet for me. If Wolves nick something and we both yell DOH tomorrow, so be it.
Banker Bets
Tuesday 30 December
Chelsea to beat Bournemouth
Win probability 66 percent
Price around 1.60
Looking ahead to New Year’s Day
Liverpool to beat Leeds United
Win probability 76 percent
Price around 1.48
These are bankers in the traditional sense, not guarantees. They smooth variance, they do not eliminate it.
What Else Is Live Today
We have coverage up across multiple competitions, including:
Enterprise National League
Boston United vs Brackley Town with ArmchairPunter on the form book
Scottish League
Livingston vs Dundee United
NCAA College Football
Tennessee at Illinois
USC at TCU
Premier League full slate for Tuesday night including Chelsea vs Bournemouth, West Ham vs Brighton, and of course Arsenal vs Aston Villa
ArmchairPunter continues to do what he does best across the lower leagues. Steady reads, disciplined selections, and a reminder that not every edge needs fireworks to be profitable.
Full lists and previews are live on site.
English football
https://www.goonersguide.com/english-football.php
Value bets
https://www.goonersguide.com/gooners-value-bets.php
Bankers
https://www.goonersguide.com/banker-bets.php
And the online spreadsheet of course …
https://www.goonersguide.com/numbers_spreadsheet.htm
That’s the midweek card.
Bet small. Bet smart. Or do not bet at all and just enjoy the football.
Either way, understand that variance is part of the game and anyone selling certainty is selling something else entirely.
More coming for the weekend and into the New Year.
Good luck if you are having a bet.
And Wolves did surprise ManYoo at Old Trafford, but the game finished 1-1 so we were right to oppose the short price on the home win - and also not right to take the away win bet - no homer Simpson moment.
So how did we go ? Everton won 2-0 at Forest at 3.60 to 3.80 odds to mean that the 3 value bets paid off - even if Burnley missed - and THE ARSENAL thumped Aston Villa 4-1.