Weekend Value Report
Football, numbers, and a little Christmas pressure
This weekend sits in that awkward pre-Christmas window where leagues keep rolling but attention starts drifting toward Boxing Day chaos. We will be publishing a special Christmas Day edition that focuses squarely on the Boxing Day programme in the Premier League, plus the NFL slate, so consider this the calm before the storm.
For now, it is a solid weekend of football, a few standout value angles, and plenty of games that will tell us who is serious and who is just hanging on.
The Shape of the Week
This turned into a slightly unusual value slate.
Instead of the usual mix of dogs and chaos, the numbers keep pushing me toward three home wins priced bigger than expected, plus one Bundesliga draw that just refuses to go away when you run the EV.
As always, this is not about picking winners.
It’s about letting value do its thing over time.
Four bets.
Two winners gets us paid.
Three and it is a very good weekend.
Gooners Statistical Value Bets
Aston Villa vs Manchester United
Premier League | Sunday 21 Dec
Villa at home have been elite.
A 6-1-1 record at Villa Park, with wins over Manchester City and Arsenal, tells you everything you need to know about the difficulty of this venue.
United are improving and five unbeaten away is no fluke, but this is still a big step up.
My ratings have Villa at 1107 here versus United at 1013, a serious gap.
Across 152 similar EPL fixtures, the home side wins 61 percent of the time.
At 2.10 to 2.15, that is proper value.
Bet: Aston Villa to win
Best price: 2.10 to 2.15
Projected EV: 131%
This one is pulling double duty as both a value bet and a banker, which almost never happens.
Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg
Bundesliga | Saturday 20 Dec
This is exactly the sort of game that drives punters mad.
Mid-table. Tight ratings. No clear edge.
When we pulled 138 similar Bundesliga matches, the results came back almost perfectly split.
Home win 33 percent
Draw 33 percent
Away win 34 percent
That makes the draw the only price doing any work at all.
It is not exciting. It is not confident. It is just mathematically correct.
Bet: Draw
Price: 3.60
EV: 119%
Small stake. No drama.
RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga | Saturday 20 Dec
Leipzig at home have been relentless.
Six straight home wins.
Five of them by two goals or more.
Only Bayern rate higher at home in Germany right now.
The historical data here is thin, so this is more lean than lock, but form and venue both point the same way. At 2.10, this is a fair price on the stronger side.
Bet: RB Leipzig to win
Price: 2.10
Newcastle United vs Chelsea
Premier League | Saturday lunchtime
This one stood out immediately.
Newcastle are being priced like outsiders at St James’ Park, which makes no sense given what they have done there this season. They are 5-1-2 at home, with wins over Manchester City and losses only to Arsenal and Spurs.
Chelsea are fine on the road, but their away rating still sits a long way behind Newcastle’s home number.
From 68 similar EPL matches, the home side wins 54 percent of the time.
At prices north of 2.60, and climbing, this is the standout value of the weekend.
Bet: Newcastle to win
Best price: 2.80 to 2.81
EV: 142%
The Banker Bets
Saturday 20 December
Manchester City to beat West Ham
Win probability 75 percent
Price 1.22
Sunday 21 December
Aston Villa to beat Manchester United
Win probability 61 percent
Price 2.15
Saturday is obvious.
Sunday is less comfortable, but still justified by the numbers.
Arsenal at Everton
A proper title test
This is exactly the sort of fixture that cost Arsenal last season.
Two draws against Everton.
Points dropped quietly.
Another runners-up finish locked in.
The Wolves game last time out was a win, but not a convincing one.
Lots of ball. Lots of shots. Too little quality in the final third.
The difference this time is preparation.
No midweek game.
Time to reset.
No excuses.
My sheet gives Arsenal a 57 percent chance here, which tells you how hard this place is. Arsenal have won at Goodison once in the last six seasons.
The prices reflect that.
Everton at 5.50 are slightly inflated.
Arsenal at 1.60 are slightly short.
No bet for me.
But a massive emotional investment.
If Arsenal want to be champions, these are the games they have to win.
Early Christmas presents are earned, not wrapped.
Tottenham vs Liverpool
A short reality check
Tottenham against Liverpool is one of those fixtures where confidence levels matter more than tactics, and right now Spurs are impossible to read. My ratings have this as 995 versus 1046, which lines up almost perfectly with the market and leaves every obvious betting angle as negative value. The bookmakers have nailed it. Home, draw, away, there is no edge hiding anywhere.
What makes it interesting is the range of outcomes. If Tottenham serve up the same passive performance we saw in the 0-3 loss at Forest, Liverpool could run away with it. But Thomas Frank’s counter-attacking instincts do at least give Spurs a puncher’s chance. Liverpool may dominate possession, miss their moments, and get caught once on the break.
It is a no-bet game for me, but a fascinating one all the same. And if it goes wrong, the pressure gauge on both Frank and Arne Slot will move sharply upward by Sunday night.
What Else Is Live on Site
We currently have 44 previews up across the major leagues, including:
Premier League full round coverage
Bundesliga including Leipzig vs Leverkusen and Bayern away to Heidenheim
Championship and League action
Serie A and La Liga
NCAA Football bowl games, with CFP matchups now in full focus
If you are betting this weekend, there is more depth and more angles waiting on the site.
Good luck if you are having a bet.
Stay disciplined if you are not.
And if you are just reading along, welcome back to the human layer.
More next week.
Liverpool beat 10-man Tottenham (9-man for 3 minutes) and Spurs put on a weak show for about 60-70 minutes - before suddenly flipping a switch and flowing forward after going 0-2 down. Frank introduced 3 players including Richarlison and they got a goal back and looked much better. Try attacking from the start next time.
Aston Villa beat Manchester United 2-1 on Sunday - good for the banker bets and the value bets systems. But ManYoo were absolutely in the game and possibly had the better chances. I think Villa’s good run is about to end - momentum always ebbs and flows.